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Colombia Elections Last Poll shows possible runoff, and conservatives will be decisive.

(L-R) Colombian presidential candidates German Vargas Lleras of the Cambio Radical party, Gustavo Petro of the Polo Democratico Alternativo,. Antanas Mockus of the Green Party (Partido Verde), Noemi Sanin of the Conservative Party, and Juan Manuel Santos (La U Party)(Reuter Photo)

According to a poll published today in El Tiempo newspaper, presidential candidate Juan Manuel Santos, the front-runner ahead of next month’s election in Colombia, saw his lead over his nearest challenger narrow.  Santos (La U party), had the support of 30 percent of  interviewed by Ipsos this week, compared with 20 percent backing Antanas Mockus (Green Party) and 12 percent for Noemi Sanin (Conservative Party).

Santos is down 6% (from 36% in March), Mockus up from 9 percent to 20% and Sanin is down 5% (from 17 percent to 12), El Tiempo said.

If no candidate gets more  than 50 percent of first-round votes on May 30 , there will be a runoff  next June 20.

None of the candidates represents a threat to  the economic and security policies of current President Alvaro Uribe, who could not run for a second reelection.

Colombia is now the fourth largest economy of SouthAmerica ($242 billion GP) and  during Uribe´s two terms Colombia grew at record levels obtaining  about $50 billion in investment. Uribe´s main objective was to fight drug- funded guerrillas like FARC , which has lost  60% of its manpower, Uribe achieved also to slash the murder and kidnapping rates.

The survey of 1,200 people in 36 cities nationwide was conducted April 13-14 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

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